Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.508092 2.671530 2.845618 3.045786 3.270773 3.517257 3.809673
2025-03-16 2.267709 2.488878 2.737011 3.039253 3.402046 3.829713 4.381797
2025-03-23 2.136142 2.393980 2.694133 3.075675 3.557521 4.160389 4.997552
2025-03-30 2.000365 2.274689 2.602472 3.032258 3.596144 4.335274 5.425097
2025-04-06 1.889439 2.173532 2.520166 2.986370 3.617997 4.480092 5.822271
2025-04-13 1.781892 2.067796 2.422243 2.908440 3.584107 4.537141 6.090585
2025-04-20 1.733644 2.032404 2.409792 2.939784 3.699497 4.816148 6.748417
2025-04-27 1.700885 2.013803 2.416387 2.995170 3.851434 5.165660 7.594354
2025-05-04 1.670057 1.995187 2.420582 3.045697 3.998820 5.525431 8.545132
2025-05-11 1.615983 1.942635 2.375053 3.020375 4.025866 5.687830 9.152201
2025-05-18 1.568154 1.896017 2.334789 2.999170 4.055996 5.857296 9.817116
2025-05-25 1.522474 1.850183 2.293013 2.972338 4.073497 6.004769 10.474051
2025-06-01 1.479835 1.807543 2.254696 2.949783 4.098535 6.174625 11.255926
2025-06-08 1.445406 1.774853 2.228961 2.944769 4.152539 6.408094 12.293411
2025-06-15 1.424997 1.760670 2.228920 2.979381 4.277799 6.803554 13.970284
2025-06-22 1.384673 1.716849 2.183373 2.938216 4.263403 6.904506 14.801427
2025-06-29 1.346190 1.674343 2.138013 2.894681 4.240767 6.984207 15.608683
2025-07-06 1.301654 1.621886 2.075961 2.820691 4.155923 6.913850 15.855278
2025-07-13 1.287016 1.611778 2.076848 2.850459 4.268693 7.313998 18.155903
2025-07-20 1.278946 1.610713 2.091091 2.903031 4.430140 7.863581 21.642605
2025-07-27 1.269989 1.607926 2.102374 2.950962 4.587295 8.440555 26.084979
2025-08-03 1.244366 1.579803 2.073260 2.926945 4.595020 8.623151 28.552805
2025-08-10 1.220877 1.554186 2.047155 2.906826 4.609123 8.827380 31.530078